On Sunday, February 27, 2023, astronomers found a brand new asteroid that they’ve named 2023DW. With such a brand new discovery, they’ve had solely three days of observations. For the time being, ESA’s Near-Earth Objects Coordination Center lists the asteroid as having a 1-in-680 probability of impacting Earth on February 14, 2046. However, probably, additional observations will refine the orbit and present that the asteroid will safely cross us in 23 years. As of this writing, estimates put 2023DW at a cushty 99.87% probability of lacking Earth.
As of Friday morning, March 3, 2023, the evaluation of its orbit was based on 52 observations spanning 3.1830 days, via March 1, 2023.
As a thought experiment, Italian astronomer Piero Sicoli did his personal math to determine the percentages of impression and the potential location of the place the strike could be. He shared his outcomes on Twitter:
#2023DW. With simply 3 days of arc, I discovered about 1 in 400 probability of impression on Feb. 14, 2046 (JPL 1/770). Certainly this risk will quickly be dominated out, nonetheless, as an train, I calculated the place the asteroid would possibly fall if this risk occurred. pic.twitter.com/ldlSYJMvMz
— PS (@Piero_Sicoli) March 2, 2023
Last chance to get a moon phase calendar! Only a few left.
Extra on asteroid 2023DW
Astronomers estimate the asteroid is 165 ft (50 meters) in diameter. (Watch a video of size comparisons in asteroids.) Whereas 50 meters isn’t something close to a planet-ending-sized rock, it will depart a mark in no matter area it hit. In actual fact, the Chelyabinsk meteor that exploded within the air over Russia was a bit beneath half the scale of the estimate for 2023DW.
At the moment a 1 on the Torino scale
Additionally, 2023DW at the moment has a Torino rating of 1. Even the very uncommon rating of 1 (as a substitute of 0) is nothing to be fearful about. A rating of 1 means:
A routine discovery by which a cross close to Earth is predicted that poses no uncommon stage of hazard. Present calculations present a collision is extraordinarily unlikely with no trigger for public consideration or public concern. New telescopic observations very possible will result in reassignment to Degree 0.
It’s not utterly uncommon for newly found asteroids with unsure orbits to make the record of dangerous objects. Luckily, this one is small and already has a really low likelihood of hitting Earth. In actual fact, just a bit greater than a month in the past, newly found asteroid 2023BU handed (with out incident) solely 3% of the moon’s common distance from Earth.
Backside line: Astronomers are monitoring the newly found asteroid 2023DW. With solely three days of its orbit plotted, they’re 99.87% certain it is not going to impression Earth on February 14, 2046.